Public Transit

An IBM report released earlier this month revealed some significant changes in consumer sentiment and public willingness to use certain mobility methods as a result of COVID-19. The study polled more than 25,000 adults during the month of April. Of the respondents that regularly used buses, subways, or trains: 20 percent said they no longer would utilize those options; an additional 28 percent said they would use public transportation less often. 17 percent of people surveyed said they will use their personal vehicle more; 25 percent of that 17 percent said it will be their exclusive method of transportation going forward.

Consumer perception of public transportation and the ways we move has shifted dramatically in just three short months. These results indicate that a significant number of U.S. consumers intend to drastically change the ways they travel in the aftermath of COVID-19. If these sentiments remain in place in the coming years, the decrease in public transportation ridership would mean decreased fee collections, which can lead to several options for cities to fund public transportation, including (1) an increase in ridership fees, (2) an increase in general tax revenue devoted to public transportation, or (3) a decrease in service offerings. All of these options are undesirable, especially in cities where private vehicle ownership is low, and many workers may have no option other than public transportation. The cities with the largest annual ridership numbers for subway or metro are New York City, Washington D.C., Chicago, Boston, and the San Francisco Bay Area.

City

Annual Metro/ Subway ridership (2019)

Population
(2018 Estimates)

Percent of Households without a vehicle (2016)

New York, NY

2,274 Million

8,398,748

54.4%

Washington, D.C.

237 Million

702,455

37.3%

Chicago

218 Million

2,705,994

27.5%

Boston

152 Million

694,583

33.8%

San Francisco

123 Million

883,305

29.9%

Removing 20 percent of public transportation riders completely and decreasing the usage of nearly 30 percent more would be financially catastrophic for any city transit authority. In 2019, the New York MTA brought in nearly $17 Billion. The current decrease in ridership (down 74 percent) has already required the MTA to seek billions in aid from the federal government and led to a first-ever decrease in working hours to sanitize trains overnight. A sustained decrease of more than 30 percent of rides per year would require a systemic overhaul of the metro system or some other drastic measures.

While some respondents indicated they will use their personal vehicles more, it is clear that in cities where public transportation is most utilized, many people do not have access to a personal vehicle. This will place a difficult decision on many underserved and minority communities: return to using public transportation and face an elevated risk of potential infection, struggle to find a job closer to home to avoid transportation, or save for a personal vehicle to avoid public transportation. Owning a vehicle in major cities can be prohibitively expensive for low-income households, and affordable parking can be nearly impossible to find. As transit authorities raise prices to compensate for lost riders, more riders may depart as the cost of ridership becomes too high for their budget. This could lead to a death spiral for public transportation. These systems simply cannot sustain 90 percent ridership decreases.

The same IBM survey also found that the decision to buy a personal vehicle after COVID-19 was “greatly” influenced by a constraint on their personal finances for more than 33 percent of respondents. 25 percent said they would hold off on buying a vehicle for more than 6 months. So for many people who wish to stop using public transportation, there is no safe and affordable option immediately available. Some may point to rideshare services as a safer alternative to the cramped quarters of public transportation. But according to the survey, of the respondents who used rideshare apps and services already, more than 50 percent said they would use the services less, or stop entirely. Uber and Lyft are going to see an incredible drop off in ridership; Uber and Lyft both halted their carpooling services in March. Uber trips were already down 70 percent in some cities in March. These numbers are sure to increase, and the companies will recover financially due to the increase in demand for UberEats during this crisis. However, the surge in ridership seen in recent years will take many years to reach 2019 peaks.

Finally, the IBM survey also asked about working from home, a topic I wrote about at the end of March.  Around 40 percent of respondents indicated they feel strongly that their employer should provide employees the option to opt-in to remote working from home going forward. 75 percent indicated they would like to continue working from home at least occasionally, and more than 50 percent indicated they would like working from home to be their primary work method. Perhaps companies will heed the desires of their employees. It is unlikely that many companies will offer the “work from home, forever” option that Twitter and Facebook have provided. But almost certainly we will see an increase in the ability of employees to work from home, now that their ability to do so has been demonstrated. Especially in cities like New York and San Francisco where the annual cost of office space is more than $13,000 per employee. If more tech companies follow Facebook’s lead and allow many employees to work remotely forever, we may even see housing prices start to decrease in some select areas and a further decrease in public transportation ridership in cities like San Francisco.

Mobility is going to change immensely once this crisis is over, whenever that may be. Public transportation must be overhauled in its current processes and operations if it hopes to regain public confidence and achieve ridership numbers anywhere near 2019 levels during the next decade.

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues and our memories of the “before time” feel ever more distant, some have begun to wonder how this crisis and its aftermath could change how and where people live. Will people abandon expensive and dense major cities for smaller cities, suburbs or even small towns? On the one hand, I’ll admit that living in a small city like Ann Arbor has made weathering the lock down rather easy, which could lead credence to these ideas. Personally, I’ve had no issues finding supplies, or taking a walk without running into too many other people (though my apartment building’s shared laundry rooms are now a fraught location). Of course, Ann Arbor, a wealthy, educated college town with excellent access to medical care has a lot of resources other cities do not, so it may not be the best example.

Alternatively, there are those who argue our cities won’t actually change that much post-COVID-19, and there are even ways that the outbreak could make cities better (with the proper investment). Cities have survived disease outbreaks for millennia, and given that so much of our economy, culture, and infrastructure is built around cities it would be hard to seismically shift to some other model of living. Yet the economic upheaval that the pandemic has ushered in will no doubt influence where and how people live, and could last a good deal longer than the disease itself.

So what changes are well already seeing in cities, and what could that indicate about where we’re heading? In a number of cities, including New York, Seattle, and Oakland, are closing streets to open up more space for pedestrians and cyclists. Streets could also be closed to provide more outdoor space for restaurants, to help them reopen while preserving some measure of social distancing. New Zealand has gone as far as to make such street alterations national policy. Cities and towns in that nation are able to apply for funding to immediately expand sidewalks and modify streets, with the national government covering 90% of the cost. Some suggest these closures and modifications should be permanent – that we should take this opportunity to create more walkable and bikeable cities now, when we have the chance. In many ways these modified streets are similar to proposals for automated vehicle (“AV”) dominated cities. Supporters believe that wide adoption and deployment of AVs would mean more streets could have one lane of traffic in each direction, with the extra space turned over to alternative uses. The current demands of social distancing dovetail with those ideas – could cities use the current crisis to prepare themselves for an autonomous future? Given the difficulty of building new infrastructure, it may not be a bad idea to get ahead of the curve.

As noted by Phillip in a post earlier in the crisis, another effect of the global lockdown has been improved environmental conditions in cities around the globe. In India, for example, where cities have significant pollution problems, massive reductions in travel have led to clear skies. For the first time, we are seeing clear examples of what cleaner energy production could bring (pun intended). Such improvements could lead residents to demand continued reductions in emissions even after this crisis passes. These and other changes made to cities in the short term to cope with lockdowns and social distancing could dictate the future of urban design, but only if governments and citizens are willing to adopt them and protect them from being undone once the crisis passes.

P.S. Those of you who are interested in buying a bike to help navigate the new socially-distanced world may run into an issue – just like masks, cleaning supplies, and toilet paper, bikes are now becoming a scarce resource in some places.

Earlier this month, Connecticut’s Governor Ned Lamont announced and released the details of his plan to upgrade and “transform” the state’s transportation system. The plan, Connecticut 2030 (CT2030), allocates $21 billion primarily to improving Connecticut’s highways, airports, mass transit, and ports and is pitched as “what Connecticut families and employers deserve.” While that is a wonderful goal, as usual, I have questions. However, I want to go over the basics of CT2030 before getting into those questions.

“CT2030 will result in nothing short of a transformation of the economy and quality of life in Connecticut. When residents are able to travel to and from at drastically quicker rates, families can thrive, employees are more productive, and businesses are able to grow and provide more opportunities.”

Impact of CT2030

Overall, the main point of CT2030 seems to be enabling people and business to move more quickly and more efficiently. Gov. Lamont aims to achieve CT2030’s goals by addressing four main focus areas mentioned above: highways, airports, mass transit, and ports.

Highways. The main thrust of CT2030’s highway plans appear to center significantly on I-84, I-91, and I-95. This makes sense, seeing as to it that multiple spots along each of these highways rank within the top 100 worst traffic bottlenecks in the United States. These three highways will be the focus of projects such as lane additions, exit enhancements, bridge improvements, and “user fee” installations (i.e. tolls).

Mass Transit. This portion of CT2030 focuses on public transportation in the forms of railways and buses. Again, the plans here are “all about less time commuting and more time with your family.” Railways would look forward to projects for straightening and upgrading tracks, replacing aging bridges, installing new signaling systems, and adding new cars and locomotives. Buses, in a much smaller endeavor, would receive upgrades providing consistency for users across the state’s bus system. These upgrades include fitting all bus stops with shelters for protection against bad weather and signs with information on operating routes, as well as providing real-time information updates via text message or phone app.

Airports. This seems to be one of the most underdeveloped aspects of CT2030. The two enhancements to Connecticut’s aviation sector are (1) connecting the Bradley International Airport to surrounding areas via direct railway lines, and (2) the development of a “fully functioning regional airport in South-Central CT.”

Ports. Connecticut’s four major ports and the associated maritime industry annually generate an estimated $11.2 billion. The projects for these ports are unique to each location. They include dredging to allow for larger ships and freighters to pass through more frequently and the implementation of a high-speed ferry system to provide services for commuters as well as tourists.

Now for some questions:

What about induced demand? Congestion can’t always be solved by simply adding more lanes, no matter how logical that solution would seem. And it does make sense: remove the congestion by removing the bottleneck. However, this reasonable answer runs full speed into the issue of induced demand. The phenomenon of induced demand can be stated simply: “When you provide more of something, or provide it for a cheaper price, people are more likely to use it.” This means that increasing capacity does little to relieve busy roadways when traffic acts as a “gas” and the “volume expands to fill the capacity.”

“Widening a highway is no more a solution to traffic than buying bigger pants is a solution to overeating.”

David Andrew, Hartford Courant

While some experts argue that induced capacity doesn’t cause as much strife as people claim, the potential is still something that should be taken into account. If CT2030 centers on reducing highway commute time through widening projects, there needs to be at least some discussion addressing the possible negative impacts, such as an increase in urban sprawl, carbon emissions, and more.

What about pedestrian infrastructure? While CT2030 allocates approximately $21 billion to its various projects, only an estimated $52 million would be dedicated to the Community Connectivity Program (CCP), a “grant program for municipalities to make improvements to sidewalks” that “helps local communities make necessary improvements for pedestrians.” If my math is even close to correct – honestly, no promises – this amounts to less than half of a percent.

Admittedly, I’m using the term “pedestrian infrastructure” broadly to include traffic calming and bicycle infrastructure in addition to traditional pedestrian infrastructure while CT2030 narrows the scope of CCP down to sidewalk projects. However, this doesn’t defeat the question of why so little focus is dedicated to pedestrian infrastructure.

There are plenty of unanswered questions and unaddressed concerns still surrounding CT2030. One major question mark is whether it will actually be implemented. This is thanks to Gov. Lamont and state legislators starring in leading roles opposite one another in a multi-season drama. With this in mind, it will be interesting to see how and if Connecticut moves forward with CT2030 or any rival transportation plans.

In my previous posts, I have written a lot about city design and integrating emerging forms of transit, primarily automated vehicles, into the transportation landscape of a city. I am spending this summer in Washington, DC, and am getting an up-close look at this city’s transit options. I left my car behind for the summer, so for the first time in years, I am entirely reliant on public transportation, ridesharing apps, and my own feet to navigate the city. In the process, I have learned a few things that I plan to explore in more depth over the course of the summer. For now, here are the highlights:

1. Scooters do provide important transit for at least some people:

My house is about 0.6 miles from the bus line I take to work. So far, I have walked to that stop every morning. Along the way though, I see people riding by on scooters between the metro or bus station and their homes. It may yet be the case that scooters are a passing fad, and for now they appear – at least anecdotally – to have been adopted primarily by younger people. And to be sure, regulating them has been controversial in cities across the nation, which I plan to address in a coming post. For now though, they do show promise as a “last-mile” transit option for people who prefer not to drive.

2. A wide range of transit options improves access and reliability:

I ride the bus to and from work every day. When I want to explore the city on weekends, I take the metro downtown. I was running late to meet a friend the other day, and got an Uber. Others use scooters or the city’s bike-share program to get where they need to go. All of these options will work better or worse for different people, and for different purposes. All of them operating together can create a more functional, accessible transit system that serves the entire city.

3. Walkable neighborhoods ease the burden on a city’s transit system:

I live in a neighborhood with a grocery store, a Target, and a handful of bars and restaurants within a few blocks radius. As a consequence, I can walk just about everywhere I have to go except my office. Later this summer, I plan to explore ways in which cities can encourage development of walkable neighborhoods, thus easing the burden on overtaxed public transit systems and reducing the use of personal cars in the long run.

4. Affordable housing is directly linked to transit equity:

Perhaps this goes without saying, but a good, comprehensive transit network within a city does little good for the people who cannot afford to live in that city. This week, I’ve spoken with a couple people in my office who live an hour outside the city because it’s more affordable than living here. They drive to the farthest out metro stations, park there then ride into the city. To be sure, this still reduces congestion within the city. But good, reliable public transit is primarily important for the quality of life, cost savings, and environmental benefits that come with reduced use of personal automobiles and shorter commutes. People who have to commute a long way to even get to the public transit system in the city where they work are largely left out of those benefits.

After introducing a discussion of mobility justice last week, I planned to highlight a few cities that were doing particularly well at enabling transit equity across racial or economic lines in their cities. While I did not expect to find many cities excelling across the board, I hoped to find some places with best practices that could be used as models along one dimension or another of mobility justice.

What I found instead is that to date, no metrics exist that appear to capture the full picture of mobility justice without leaving out significant elements of the challenge. 

For instance, 99% of San Francisco’s population lives within half a mile of public transit. In one sense, this is a positive development, as a city cannot have accessible transit options unless those options physically travel near people’s homes. However, other authors have pointed out that high housing costs have driven many of the most vulnerable communities in the San Francisco metro area beyond city limits, where transit options become sparser. Furthermore, the fee structure of San Francisco’s public transit can serve to make mobility unaffordable for low-income riders. The region has recognized transit equity as a problem, creating the Bay Area Equity Analysis Report to explore ways to improve access to transit across the region. The report includes proposals such as a region-wide reduced fare pass and a simplified process to apply for reduced fares. Both proposals appear to be positive steps. Their effectiveness at improving access to transit must be evaluated in the coming years.

New York’s subway system is by far the busiest in the nation. Virtually the entire city has either subway or bus service near their home, and the city’s buses and subways provide roughly 7.7 million rides per day. However, the high usage rate is straining the system. In recent decades New York’s subway has been chronically underfunded, and thus subject to increasing delays and needs for repair that limit its usefulness for many city residents. Furthermore, it is unclear how much even a fully functional New York subway could serve as a model for other cities. New York is among a limited number of American cities that grew up before the rise of the automobile. As such, it is more compact as a whole, and its transit system was able to grow with the city in a way that would not be the case for the more sprawling cities investing more heavily in transit in recent years.

A recent study by Greg Griffin and Ipek Nese Sener from the Texas A&M Transportation Institute analyzed transit equity in nine major metro areas across the nation. The authors found that cities like Atlanta and Los Angeles, which have an integrated system of both bus and rail service, are among the most equitable in the nation. However, they cautioned that their study focused primarily on access across incomes, rather than overall access. A city such as Atlanta “may rank low on overall accessibility while doing well in terms of equity by income. Of course, lower transit accessibility overall will undoubtedly impact low-income communities more than others. While their research did not account for such issues, the development of a metric to study transit equity is a valuable contribution to the mobility justice conversation.

On the whole, no city in America is a great model of mobility justice. This is perhaps unsurprising, considering that mobility justice involves the interaction of a wide range of factors such as pricing, changing housing patterns, and planning of effective combinations of rail, bus, bikeshare, and other programs. In each city, adequately meeting this challenge will require significant local engagement with the most impacted communities, and a constant willingness to adapt their system. Plans such as the Bay Area’s Equity Analysis Report are a step in the right direction. As automated vehicles and other new forms of transportation emerge, cities need to be especially attentive to their impacts on marginalized communities.

Whenever connected and autonomous vehicles are considered, some people envision a mobility paradise. They see current parking areas making way for more productive buildings or green space, pedestrians and cyclists sharing the roads with vehicles that can seamlessly respond to every move, and a dramatic decrease in traffic fatalities. Such visions are behind much of the push towards autonomous vehicles, and the hands-off regulatory approaches I’ve written about before in states like Arizona.

Grand visions of the future of mobility frequently focus on socioeconomic segments of our society from the middle class up. This focus is rarely stated explicitly. However, it is generally assumed that autonomous vehicles will be hailed with a smartphone. Major beneficiaries of the CAV revolution will be information sector employees who could work from a laptop during their commute. Reuse of space currently dominated by parking is primarily an issue for affluent downtown business districts. While CAVs could ease transportation for many people, it is important that affirmative steps be taken to ensure access to adequate transportation for poor and minority communities in the new world we are building.

The advent of CAVs would not be the first time a new transportation technology has left disadvantaged communities behind. The rise of the personal automobile led to a transportation boom for the middle class, while many poor neighborhoods were forgotten or paved over to facilitate the creation of new highways. Many poor and minority communities today are in “transit deserts,” areas of a city with high demand for public transportation but poor service.

Some of the problems stemming from past transportation shifts were borne of malice. The history of redlining and efforts to design cities in such a way as to keep minority communities segregated from middle and upper-class white residents is well documented. Much of the problem may have also been simple negligence. People with disposable income, cars, and cell-phones are better able to make their voice heard in corridors of power. Without an active effort to reach out to other parts of their constituency, government officials may only hear the needs of those with the means to participate.

There are early signs that cities are considering how to make new transit systems accessible by the whole community. While light on detail, a recent document from the National Association of City Transportation Officials lists “mobility for the whole city” as a key principle of the coming urban transportation environment. The World Bank has noted the importance of transit opportunities to the economic prospects of impoverished city-dwellers. To follow up on that high-minded vision, city leaders will need to not only engage the usual stakeholders and governmental departments, but the entirety of the effected community. Mayors, council members, and planners must actively reach out to poor and minority communities to discuss their transportation needs, and develop concrete plans. Such outreach may not be easy, particularly given the need to account for the time constraints of people who work multiple jobs or lack disposable income. It is the type of work that is necessary though if the CAV revolution is to fulfill its potential for all of a city’s people.

I’ve written in recent weeks about the impact of autonomous vehicles on city design. Choices made by both city planners and CAV operators in the coming decades will play key roles in determining whether our new transportation paradigm is one of compact, walkable cityscapes that accommodate traffic of all sorts, or one that spurs increased suburban and exurban sprawl and is truly designed only with car transport in mind. One particularly important aspect of this question is to what extent CAVs will integrate with current mass transit rather than attempt to replace it.

Some companies, such as Ann Arbor based May Mobility,are purposely seeking out opportunities to integrate with local transit. The company recently contracted with Columbus, OH to begin operating their CAVs on a short loop through downtown along the Scioto River. A small-scale project like this has the potential to improve traffic flow in the central city without incentivizing people to move ever farther away from the urban core. A deal was also announced between May and the state of Rhode Island to run autonomous shuttles that will connect public transit lines in the nearby cities of Providence and Olneyville.

Its certainly possible that May’s long-term ambitions are bigger. They may hope to use their autonomous technology to compete with companies like Ford, Waymo and Uber to provide people with a primary mode of transportation. For now though, services like this should be viewed as a model for cities seeking to promote vibrant urban centers.

Many cities across the country, even those without longstanding strength in public transit, have already committed serious resources to revitalizing and maintaining their urban cores. Kansas City is planning a roughly $300 million extension of an existing light rail line. Phoenix, which first opened its light rail line ten years ago, passed a ballot initiative in 2015 to raise new funds fora 66-mile expansion of the system. And public transit is not supported only by public money. In South Florida, a privately owned, high speed commuter train recently opened to carry passengers between Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and West Palm Beach.

Cities investing so heavily in large-scale public transit certainly have a demonstrated interest in the economic development that comes with urban revitalization. Furthermore, they see transportation as a key factor in spurring renewed growth. If these localities are not careful though, they may see their careful plans laid to waste by the onset of CAVs. In the post-WWII era, the dominance of the automobile contributed to the emptying out of city centers and the paving over of vast swaths of land. Looking ahead, it’snot hard to see the rise of this new technology thwarting the plans of the most well-intentioned cities.

Those that hope to back up their commitment to public transit and sustainable living will need to think carefully about how transportation technologies should be accommodated. For now, the May Mobility model may be attractive for its intentional compatibility with other forms of transit. Looking ahead, as CAVs become more advanced, such companies will likely move to take over more of the transportation market. Cities need to be aware of that possibility and consider how to design their infrastructure and transportation policies to integrate CAVs into existing plans, lest they betaken over by them.

City design has long been shaped by modes of transportation. The transition is easy to spot as you move westward across America. Relatively compact eastern cities initially grew up in the 18th and 19th centuries, when people traveled by foot or by horse. Scattered across the plains, and particularly throughout the vast expanses of Texas and the Southwest, are cities filled with wide thoroughfares and sprawling suburbs, designed to match the rise of car culture. A large-scale shift to autonomous vehicle transportation will once again mold our cities in new ways. I wrote recently about this coming shift, focusing in particular on the reuse of space currently dominated by parking. This post will build on that theme by exploring the ways in which big data generated by new transportation technologies will guide city planners and business strategists in creating new urban environments.

Many cities already take advantage of more traditional forms of transportation data to improve urban planning. For example, analysis of population density and traffic patterns facilitated Moscow’s 50% increase in public transit capacity, which enabled the city to reduce driving lanes in favor of more space for pedestrians and cyclists. Looking to the future, New York University’s Center for Urban Science and Progress seeks to help cities harness the power of big data to “become more productive and livable.” Today, more data exists regarding our transportation habits than ever before. Ride-hailing services such as Uber and Lyft, along with the popularity of “check-in” apps such as Foursquare, have exponentially increased the amount of data collected as we go through our daily routines. The advent of CAVs, along with smaller scale technologies such as bike-share and scooter-share programs, will only accelerate this trend.

Currently, most of this data is collected and held by private companies. This valuable information is already being aggregated and used by companies such as Sasaki, a design firm that uses data from Yelp, Google, and others to help businesses and developers understand how their planned projects can best fit in with a community’s existing living patterns. The information is able to help businesses understand, on a block-by-block basis, where their target market lives, shops, and travels. As companies such as Uber and Waymo roll out fleets of autonomous vehicles in the coming years that collect data on more and more people, such information will increasingly drive business planning.

Just as this wealth of data is impacting business decisions, making it available to the public sector would mark a significant upgrade in the capabilities of urban planners. To be sure, granting the government easy access to such fine-grained information about our daily lives comes with its own set of challenges, which my colleague Ian Williams has explored in a previous post. From the perspective of planning utility however, the benefits are clear. By better understanding exactly what times and locations present the worst traffic challenges, cities can target infrastructure improvements, tollways, or carpool benefits to alleviate the problem. A more detailed understanding of which routes people take to and from home, work, shopping, and entertainment districts can allow for more efficient zoning and the development of more walkable neighborhoods. This type of improvement has the potential to improve the livability of city centers so as to guard against the danger that CAVs will facilitate a new round of exurban flight.

As with previous shifts in transportation, the widespread move to CAVs expected in the coming years will be a key driver of the future shape of our cities. Urban planners and business strategists will play a featured role in determining whether this technology ushers in a new round of sprawl, or facilitates the growth and attractiveness of metropolitan centers. The intelligent and conscientious use of data generated by CAVs and other emerging technologies can help fuel smart development to ensure that our downtown spaces, and the communities they support, continue to thrive.

 

The rapidly approaching deployment of commercially available CAVs has led city planners to begin grappling with the ways in which this new technology is expected to shape our built environment.  A 2017 report from MIT’s Urban Economics Lab and Center for Real Estate, financed by Capital One, explores potential real estate changes driven by CAVs. The report describes two theories of what the effect will be. First, CAVs could reinforce demand for central city living by relieving congestion and need for parking, making cities more livable. Alternatively, they could lead to a new wave of suburbanization by increasing the distances people are willing to travel.

As much as CAVs will shape the future of cities though, design choices made by city planners today will also impact the ways in which CAVs are utilized. Cities that are designed primarily for drivers, with limited walkability and few public transit options, are likely to experience a rehash of all the problems with 20th century suburban sprawl: congestion, increasing infrastructure needs on the urban fringe, and a reduced tax base within city limits, to name a few. There are, however, affirmative steps that cities can take to disincentivize sprawl in favor of growth in the urban core. Two of these policy options, which I will discuss below, are smart pricing of vehicle travel and increased walkability of city centers.

Many cities have already taken steps to make solo trips in cars less attractive. Whether these policies take the form of increasing options for light rail and other public transportation, designating carpool lanes, or varying parking costs depending on the time of day, many of them may not be significantly altered by the arrival of CAVs. One change that could be facilitated by CAVs is the possibility for more fine-grained trip pricing. A city that is committed to reducing congestion could vary ride pricing for people who carpool, or for trips made outside of the heaviest use periods. Those hoping to incentivize public transit could provide reduced fares for “last mile” trips to and from light rail or bus stations.

The prevalence of CAVs will also provide cities an opportunity to rethink the design of their urban landscapes. Most American cities are dominated by parking, with 30% of the space in many downtown areas being taken up by parking spaces. This is unsurprising in light of the fact that the typical car is parked around 95% of the time. The rise of CAVs will provide cities with an opportunity to adapt much of this space to more productive use through business development, building downtown housing, and expanding green space. A key challenge here for cities will be in managing the transition. A study by the Regional Planning Association for New York, New Jersey and Connecticut found that land use planning is unlikely to be “permanently altered” by CAVs until 2040 and beyond. In the intervening years, cities can begin to take steps to plan for adaptive reuse of space. This includes such design choices as building parking garages with features that allow them to be easily converted into housing and considering zoning changes that will facilitate a more livable, walkable urban core.

CAVs have the potential to contribute to the continued revitalization of city centers through the creation of more resident-friendly downtowns, or to kickstart an accelerated urban sprawl. Smart, data-driven trip pricing and infrastructure designed to smooth the transitioning needs of cities can help guide the use of CAVs in ways that facilitate compact growth and walkable communities.